Mark Burgman: Experts, judgment and the intelligence game


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Expert judgments are pervasive, especially when data are scarce, consequences are important and the decision is imminent. This presentation examines the role that expert judgment plays in science. It evaluates the factors that affect the accuracy and calibration of estimates of facts. It examines whether experience and qualifications associate with accurate and well-calibrated judgment. New methods are outlined that improve judgment. Their performance in an international security assessment competition is described.


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